First of all this post isn't really about the primary. I have no love for any of the three Democratic candidates, but I just wanted to share some impressions that I have a of Bob McDonnell, the former GOP state Attorney General. I live in the DC area and have seen his initial ads air on TV.
As most people know McDonnell has had the GOP primary to himself, thus not having to spend money. He won the AG race in 2005 by only 300 or so votes against Creigh Deeds (D) of Bath County. He is from Virgina Beach and used to be a House of Delegates member from there.
More beneath the fold.
So far I've seen two ads from McDonnell here in the DC area. The first ad shows him sitting on the front porch of his house, where he laments how busy he and his family are. He highlights his and his daughter's past military service. The whole ad is basically devoid of issues except for his advocacy against child molesters. At the end of the ad all of his large family come out on the porch and say that "we love you, Dad". The ad is basically intended to reach what analysts euphemistically call "low information voters" who don't know the positions or are even interested in learning about the issues.
The other McDonnell ad that I've seen--apparently a response to Common Sense Virgina's ad campaign against him--focuses on jobs. This commercial speaks of the triumph of being pro-business and how he will bring jobs to VA. The ad ignores how ideologically strident the GOP in the state legislature has been or how they've contributed to what hasn't worked, but it conveys what McDonnell's agenda would be in very simple terms.
My initial sense on this race is that McDonnell is trying to run the campaign that Bush ran in 2000: one about likability, not about the issues. Look for McDonnell to blur the issues and to try to look moderate. I know that people here hate the idea of elections being decided by "who would you rather a beer with", but McDonell is angling his campaign against that framework. He wants to be likable. If this campaign hinges on whom people like I think that McDonnell wins. The Democrats have to make the campaign about the issues and link McDonnell to the ideologically strident VA GOP.
The only Democrat that I've seen running ads so far is McAuliffe. His adsso far have been relatively decent. (Note: I have yet to see a Brian Moran or Creigh Deeds ads up here, so if I see one, I'll add a link). The one that I saw is called The Next Big Idea. McAuliffe has a simple list of agenda items which convey his ideas simply.
But away from that point the key to beating McDonnell is shift the race away from personality. If it turns on "who you would rather have a beer with" or who has "the nicest family" then McDonnell wins. If it is about the issues then Deeds, McAuliffe, and Moran win. But those are just my early impressions.